A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
